A lot of conflict gets mislabeled. People say the problem is politics, ideology, tribalism, ignorance, or bad faith. Sometimes that is true. Often it is not enough.
You’re not overwhelmed because reality is complex. You’re overwhelmed because you’re treating a story like it’s a fact.
If you asked yourself, do you want to be right or do you want the truth? What's your initial instinct?
When you come across a problem, the first thought in your head, (or at least mine) is looking to find a solution. This bias' me to believe the solution needs to come quickly. Therefore, the solution may not be optimized for the future ramification.
There tends to be the thought that to make a decision, it has to be binary. There is a correct decision and an incorrect decision. There can only be those options.
Probabilistic thinking is a mental model that involves evaluating the likelihood of multiple outcomes rather than assuming certainty. It acknowledges that most decisions involve uncertainty and helps individuals assign probabilities to various possible results.
