probabilistic thinking.
Most people treat everyday decisions as a dichotomy. Right or wrong, good or bad, yes or no. Reality falls in the grey. But its also never true grey, it still closer to one side of black or white.
In probabilistic thinking you:
Hold multiple possible outcomes
• Assign rough odds
• Update those odds when new information arises
• Choose which action make sense given those odds
Probabilistic thinking doesn't mean something has to be accurate, it means you wont be surprised by the outcome. Meaning you can be prepared for the outcome.
When you come across someone being irrationally angry, or short-tempered, you can move to an assumption. They're mad, they don't like me, I did something wrong.
That binary thinking fuels anxiety and bad decision-making and likely, expended energy that creates unneeded friction in your mind.
Thinking in probabilistic terms, the plausible explanations can allow you to assign some odds:
• They're busy (40%)
• They're angry at someone else (30%)
• They've received an influx of stress-inducing work (20%)
• They actually are mad at you (10%)
The question at hand now evolves to: Should I allow myself to be upset for a 10% chance?
I wouldn't.
Most people don't suffer because they're unlucky. They suffer because they treat uncertain situations as if they're certain.
Probabilistic thinking is how you stop donating your peace to assumptions.
