the narrative fallacy.

The narrative fallacy is that mistake you make. And just like the name- it is a fallacy.

This happens, a lot. Your brain takes a few details and builds a linear explanation that feels true, even when you don't have all of the information. It is the bridge between you and Hanlon's Razor.

The outcome tends to be predictable:
You react to what you're interpretting.
You create cascading scenarios in your mind.
You escalate the problem that doesn't exist.
You miss the actual context because you're arguing in your mind.

How you should confront it this week:
• Do a first pass of facts:
- Write down the situation using objective facts. Nothing subjective, nothing that needs to be reduced or deduced.
- Examples of this:
They didn't respond for x hours.
They changed the agenda.
They were short with me.

If you can't specifically point to something you observed then it doesn't belong above.

• Separate the story you told yourself.
- Write what you interpreted as a single sentence:
They don't respect me.
They're avoiding me.
They don't care.

It's important to separate the two but identify what falls into each bucket.

• Generate at least 2 alternatives. Steelman your viewpoints.
They need to be plausible and rooted in reality.
- Examples:
They're under pressure.
They are dealing with other variables.
They assumed you already knew something.

• Assign odds to which is most plausible.
- Example:
Story 1: 50%
Story 2: 30%
Story 3: 20%

• Pick the action that will bring clarity even if you're wrong on which one it could be
- Depending on the situation you can:
Ask one question to clarify things on their end.
Clarify what you are looking for.
Set your own boundary without accusing them of anything.

• Lastly, collect one more data point
- Ask a question that can give you a bit of clarity.
Nothing that can detract a conversation or personalize it.
Something that can allow the person to add context to your perception.

Most people don’t lose because they’re unlucky.
They lose because they treat the first story as the truth, then build decisions on top of it.

This week, catch yourself once.
Do the Facts First Pass.
Generate two alternatives.
Choose the action that survives being wrong.

Jack